Politico: Azerbaijan does not have the volumes of gas Europe needs

Experts are doubtful Azerbaijan has the capacity to supply meaningful new volumes to Europe via Ukraine. Azerbaijan is trying to position itself as a major EU energy partner, Aura Sabadus, a gas markets expert at intelligence firm ICIS, told Politico.

“But they don’t have the production and, at the moment, they’re punching above their weight,” Sabadus said.

According to her, any such deal with Baku was likely to involve a volume swap that saw Russian supplies rebranded as Azerbaijani. The issue is set to come to a head on Monday when top EU diplomats meet to discuss the bloc’s foreign policy. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has threatened to veto the renewal of EU sanctions on Russia if Kyiv does not back down in the standoff, raising the prospect that frozen funds could be returned to Moscow and trade embargoes invalidated. “If the Ukrainians want help, for example … to sanction the Russians, then let them reopen the gas pipeline and let them allow the Central European countries, including Hungary, to import the gas we need through Ukraine,” the Kremlin-friendly Hungarian leader declared on Friday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is ready to transit gas from Azerbaijan to Europe. According to him, the issue was discussed during a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev a few days ago. “We can use our infrastructure if countries in Europe need gas. But not Russian gas,” he said. Russian gas flows to Europe through Ukraine were shut off this month, leading to fierce complaints from Slovakia and Hungary, which were still receiving significant deliveries from Russia.