Armenia and Azerbaijan have managed to remove one major obstacle, but there are still big problems on the way to a lasting peace treaty, Eurasianet wrote.
Since the issue of Zangezur and other “transport” routes has been removed from the draft peace treaty, Russia is losing the leverage it could otherwise use to influence future developments in the South Caucasus.
As noted, the most important obstacle is the Azerbaijani demand to amend the Armenian Constitution so that the country will clearly recognize that Artsakh is not part of Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government was open to the idea of making amendments to the Constitution, but, taking into account the domestic political sensitivity of the issue, made minor steps in that direction.
A significant part of Armenian society is against the idea of recognizing the permanent loss of Artsakh. According to many Armenians, any peace treaty should guarantee the right of return for Armenians who were forced to leave Artsakh in late 2023 after the complete occupation of the territory by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani officials seem to be aware of Pashinyan’s difficult domestic political situation. Baku has implied that the decision to remove the Zanzegur point from the draft peace treaty could have been a negotiation compromise, an incentive to encourage Pashinyan’s government to press ahead with constitutional amendments.
