Forbes: Erdogan faces pressure from Trump to implement the agreements reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan
This column has often dwelled on Azerbaijan’s contradictory situation - allied simultaneously both to Israel and to Türkiye. This combination is what helped Baku finally win the war over Karabakh. But it also bedevils relations with its two allies who, these days, hate each other, Forbes writes.
The friction came to a boil recently as Baku held the one-day Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measure in Asia (CICA). It turned out to be anything but. A host of Muslim countries walked out publicly in protest at the presence of Israeli president Herzog, including Turkey’s foreign minister.
Why does Azeri President Aliyev insist on keeping close ties to Israel at such high expense to relations with others? Simply because Israel offers the best guarantee of security against southern neighbor Iran’s interference. Why does Israel bother to keep such close ties with such a far-flung ally? Because Azerbaijan offers a threat to Iran’s northern border since the Iranian province of Azerbaijan would love to split off and join its ethnic cousins in Baku.
Added to that, a week ahead of the conference, Baku decided to re-impose a ban on women wearing head-covering to schools.
Why does this decision by Baku affect relations with Turkey? Because, Erdogan made his reputation restoring the right of women to wear hijab in government buildings, as an apostle of free expression. Until he came along, Türkiye was a strictly secular state. You couldn’t wear hijabs to government buildings of any kind, and women rarely wore them outside. These days, It is a country full of women sporting long tunics and head-scarves everywhere. And Erdogan is now scarcely a friend of free speech. Aliyev is clearly making a counter-statement, one that many Turks and others easily interpret as a provocation to Erdogan.
There will be no damage to their relations because neither can afford it but there is one other point of tension. Erdogan would like the Middle Corridor deal to get going quickly. The deal established peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Trump presiding. It’s something the US President cares about deeply as a certified example of Nobel-worthy peacemaking and Erdogan feels the pressure to deliver for him. Aliyev can afford to wait and bargain, since his country has little dependence on the US and had, after all, been at war with Armenia for some decades.
Right now, Erdogan has minimal leverage. He cannot afford to pick a fight with his close ally Aliyev for fear of fraying the budding Turkic continuum into Central Asia. Nor can he afford the distraction as he is also under tremendous pressure at home with the recent banking scandal and the massive floods in Istanbul. He may emerge deeply weakened.
