In a Telegram post, Russian political scientist Sergey Markov referred to the U.S. policy toward Armenia and Azerbaijan during Trump’s tenure. According to the expert, the main strategy of the U.S. administration toward Armenia was to separate Armenia from Russia, using words about democracy. This purely anti-Russian goal will generally persist, but Trump will put less effort into it. Trump’s main opponent is China, not Russia. On the contrary, Trump may try to improve relations with Russia.
As Markov noted, the powerful Armenian diaspora has a great influence on the U.S. policy toward Armenia. It is mostly in California and mostly in the Democratic Party. Therefore, the influence of the Armenian diaspora on the politics of Washington should weaken a little.
Democrats lost their majority in the Senate. Therefore, Chuck Schumer, a member of the Committee on Armenian Affairs and famous lobbyist of Armenian origin, will be relieved of his post.
According to the political scientist, Iran is a great enemy for Trump and a great friend for Armenia, because Armenia’s trade with the world passes through the territory of Iran. And this creates a basis for a serious conflict between the U.S. and Armenia under Trump.
Changes in the U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan will be positive, the political scientist believes. Trump may drastically reduce support to Armenia. During Trump’s previous presidency, the U.S. used to sell more American weapons to Azerbaijan than to Armenia. Azerbaijani President Aliyev spoke positively about Trump before the elections, and Trump appreciates it. He appreciates traditional values. “Trump did not react in any way to the second Karabakh war, in which Azerbaijan defeated the Armenian army, despite the fact that the Armenian lobby was calling on Trump to put pressure on Azerbaijan,” the political scientist wrote.
He added that Trump spoke about Artsakh before the elections, calling on Armenian voters for support. “This is the Armenian name of Karabakh, and it is perceived negatively in Azerbaijan. And finally, Trump will reduce environmental restrictions, which will lead to an increase in oil and gas production in the U.S. This, in turn, will lead to a decrease in gas and oil prices in the world,” Markov concluded.
