The National Interest: Armenia now looks to be indispensable for aspirations to stabilize and transform the region
Previously the “odd man out” in the Caucasus, Armenia is becoming the unexpected linchpin for new opportunities to connect Central Asia and the Caucasus to Europe. Armenia now looks to be indispensable for aspirations to stabilize and transform the region, The National Interest writes.
First, the fate of the long-negotiated final peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan still hangs in the balance. Azerbaijan has insisted that Armenia change its constitution before a final agreement. Still, Armenia’s government lacks the constitutional majority in parliament needed to make those changes.
If Armenia cannot clinch a peace deal, the region could remain stuck in a protracted ceasefire without the broader peace agreement needed for long-term stability, increased trust, and cooperation. By extension, Armenia’s fledgling normalization of relations with Turkey would also stall or be jeopardized, further limiting regional cooperation and trade opportunities.
Second, Armenia will need determination and resourcefulness to maintain momentum in successfully constructing the TRIPP. Because TRIPP is a high-profile link in building and diversifying the Middle Corridor’s trade, transit, and energy network, progress on that 43-kilometer rail segment is critical to its growth. Breaking ground on TRIPP will serve as a green light for investment in other transit and infrastructure projects across the Caucasus. Without progress on TRIPP, the Middle Corridor will still develop, but more slowly.
Facing a highly polarized and contentious political environment, Armenia is not perfect on democracy (Freedom House ranks it only as “Partly Free”). Notably, a set of investigations and detentions of opposition figures has raised questions about selective enforcement from international observers. If Armenia can maintain its overall democratic course despite political polarization, it will preserve not just its EU aspirations, but also the freedoms and rights that will spur innovation, investment, and economic dynamism in the region.
Certainly, there are scenarios in which Armenia could be left on the sidelines.
The question is whether Armenia will receive the continued, robust support it needs from its Western partners to play this catalyzing and connective role.
