The National Interest: TRIPP and new routes through Armenia can complement the existing Middle Corridor and increase competition

One of the most consequential foreign policy initiatives of the second Trump administration has been commercial diplomacy in Central Asia and brokering peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These developments have renewed momentum for infrastructure connecting Central Asia with the South Caucasus, Black Sea, Mediterranean, and wider Europe, The National Interest writes.

The flagship initiative is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which could create an additional route through Azerbaijan and Armenia to Turkey for energy, minerals, fertilizers, data, and other strategic flows.

For millennia, the South Caucasus served as a trade route between Asia and Europe.

A recent World Bank study indicates that targeted investments to better integrate the Middle Corridor could more than triple trade volumes, halve travel times, raise GDP by 3.3 percent, and create 2 million additional jobs by 2040. With reforms, corridor volumes could quadruple and travel times could fall by two-thirds compared with 2023. This would require at least $25 billion through 2040 for physical bottlenecks, plus $30 billion for enabling investments, with a significant share coming from private capital.

Emerging infrastructure does not replace this system; it adds routes, capacity, and strategic options. TRIPP and new routes through Armenia can complement the existing Middle Corridor, increase competition, and bring Armenia into regional trade and connectivity. Greater route diversification should strengthen resilience and economic security. Energy transmission, digital connectivity, and flows of critical minerals, fertilizers, and other strategic commodities are increasingly interconnected, creating an integrated network connecting Central Asian and European and Mediterranean markets.