Gas prices to rise by 69%, Armenians to need work permits: Report outlines consequences of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU

Representatives of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan on the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council have presented a report on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This was reported by the Russian government’s press service.

The report outlines the measures Armenia has taken toward joining the European Union and analyzes the compatibility of the EAEU and EU legal frameworks, particularly Armenia’s obligations as an EAEU member and those it would undertake in connection with joining the EU. It also describes legal mechanisms designed to prevent risks arising from Armenia’s decision to pursue EU membership and assesses the possible consequences of suspending Armenia’s membership in the EAEU.

The report will be submitted to the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

The document also states that Armenia’s steps toward EU membership have raised questions about its status within the EAEU. The adoption of “European standards” by Armenia could undermine the unity of the EAEU’s common customs territory.

According to the report, Armenia’s membership in the European Union would be incompatible with its participation in the Eurasian Economic Union.

“Joining one integration bloc while remaining a member of another, as well as introducing a legal framework that differs from existing supranational obligations, inevitably creates legal conflicts that cannot be resolved. Such arrangements are therefore not feasible from either a legal or a practical standpoint,” the document states.

According to projections։

• Suspending Armenia’s participation in the EAEU would worsen the country’s economic performance.
• Armenia’s total trade turnover with EAEU member states would fall by more than 55%. Exports of Armenian goods to EAEU member states would decline by more than 65%, while imports from those countries would fall by almost half.
• The cost of gas imports to Armenia would rise by 69%, reaching $657.5 million a year if the country left the Eurasian Economic Union.
• Suspending Armenia’s membership would also result in the introduction of quotas for Armenian citizens seeking employment in EAEU member states, making work permits mandatory.
• Rail freight transportation would become more expensive as well. In addition, goods would be subject to full sanitary and veterinary controls.
• Suspending Armenia’s membership in the EAEU would lead to a 15.6% decline in its GDP, according to a joint report by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

“At the same time, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Russian Federation, while respecting the right of the people of the Republic of Armenia to independently decide whether to participate in various unions and integration blocs, are not interested in Armenia leaving the Eurasian Economic Union,” the report states.