Study: Leaving the EAEU could have catastrophic consequences for Armenia

The economic consequences of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could be severe, with losses potentially reaching 40% of the country’s GDP.

This is according to a study by the Eurasian Rating Agency, excerpts of which have been obtained by TASS.

The key risks identified in the study include the loss of preferential access to EAEU markets, reduced benefits for labor migrants, the loss of access to common technical regulations and sanitary and phytosanitary standards, higher energy prices approaching global market levels, and a decline in remittances from Russia.

The study notes that access to Russian natural gas at relatively low prices is an important factor supporting the competitiveness of Armenia’s economy.

“An essential factor in maintaining the competitiveness of the Armenian economy is the price of Russian natural gas. In 2025, the price stood at $165 per 1,000 cubic meters at the border, and an agreement set the price at $177.50 by early 2026. By comparison, European gas prices exceeded $600 per 1,000 cubic meters during the same period,” the document states.

In addition, personal remittances from Russia to Armenia in 2024–2025 were comparable in volume to Armenia’s trade deficit. According to some estimates, up to 15% of Armenia’s population depends directly on these funds.